https://mostlynothing.co/ An investing journal about the few decisions that actually matter. en-us 60 https://mostlynothing.co/research/nbis-research-2026-10-17/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/nbis-research-2026-10-17/ Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT I've followed Arkady Volozh for years. The October AI selloff finally pushed me to model Nebius properly, especially the financing behind its enormous buildout. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/cost-of-switching-great-companies/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/cost-of-switching-great-companies/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT In September I moved part of my Roth IRA from Microsoft into Alphabet. The question I left unfinished was how much better a replacement investment needs to be when the original holding is already good. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/sp500-hidden-weakness/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/sp500-hidden-weakness/ Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The S&P 500 is up 14%, but more than 40% of its stocks are down. I look at what the narrow leadership means for an already AI-heavy portfolio. https://mostlynothing.co/research/mco-research-2026-10-11/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/mco-research-2026-10-11/ Sun, 11 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Moody's offers something my AI-heavy portfolio needs: different earnings drivers. But the ratings moat, recurring analytics and a 3.5% FCF yield still have to clear the price test. https://mostlynothing.co/research/isrg-research-2026-10-08/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/isrg-research-2026-10-08/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Intuitive's surgical ecosystem is extraordinary. I reconstructed the economics, modeled every line to FY2031, and found that a 31% drawdown still leaves a demanding entry price. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/marvell-finally-put-a-number-on-the-denominator/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/marvell-finally-put-a-number-on-the-denominator/ Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Marvell's Investor Day finally put a per-share target behind the AI story. That changes my expected return enough to kill the easy December-sale thesis, but not enough to make me add today. https://mostlynothing.co/research/avgo-research-2026-10-02/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/avgo-research-2026-10-02/ Fri, 02 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Broadcom’s AI earnings engine is accelerating, but the five-year Base return at $355 is close to my hurdle. Portfolio overlap still blocks capital. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/q3-2026-review-q4-game-plan/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/q3-2026-review-q4-game-plan/ Thu, 01 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Q3 was mostly about letting earlier decisions work, realizing the index sleeve had quietly shrunk, and remembering that a good expected return still has to beat the next-best use of the dollar. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/micron-33-eps-is-not-the-interesting-part/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/micron-33-eps-is-not-the-interesting-part/ Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Micron reported $33.42 of quarterly EPS. The bigger change was management extending tight supply through 2028, adding much more contractual visibility, and setting up a real capital-return story. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/the-next-10000/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/the-next-10000/ Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The hypothetical is now real: $5,000 into BRBR at $7.63 and $5,000 into FXAIX. About $320K is now invested. The more interesting question is why BRBR stops there. https://mostlynothing.co/research/nflx-research-2026-09-28/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/nflx-research-2026-09-28/ Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT I came in wanting a reason to pass on Netflix. The operating numbers and five-year return math made that harder than expected. https://mostlynothing.co/research/alnt-research-2026-09-26/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/alnt-research-2026-09-26/ Sat, 26 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Allient checks a lot of boxes I like. The harder question is whether the earnings can grow fast enough to outrun a starting valuation near 42x 2026 consensus EPS. https://mostlynothing.co/articles/mostly-nothing/ https://mostlynothing.co/articles/mostly-nothing/ Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Why I’m documenting the road to seven figures, why doing nothing is often the outcome of the work, and how I’m keeping future-me from rewriting the story. https://mostlynothing.co/research/brbr-scenarios-2026-09-24/ https://mostlynothing.co/research/brbr-scenarios-2026-09-24/ Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Revenue held up. Profitability did not. Here is the recovery math behind the planned ~$5K starter, including the ugly case.