Playbooks

The parts worth reusing.

Most company research should stay specific to the company. These are the few methods I keep reusing because the same annoying questions show up over and over.

There are 2 right now. I do not need a giant framework library; these are here because I kept running into the same problem more than once.

Choose the problem

Start with the question that is actually bothering me.

The framework is useful once I know what I am trying to figure out. Otherwise I can build a very tidy model around the wrong problem.

ValuationSep 25, 2026

How I Build a Bear / Base / Bull Model

A step-by-step workflow for choosing the right valuation inputs, building bear/base/bull assumptions, and converting them into per-share returns. Worked through with MSFT and BRBR.

What this answersWhich metrics do I use, and how do I turn them into scenario returns?
Use it whenBuilding a valuation model from scratch.
Open playbook →
Capital AllocationSep 25, 2026

How I Score Capital Allocation

Two 10-point capital-allocation rubrics: one for cash-generative compounders and one for asymmetry positions where runway, sequencing and dilution matter more.

What this answersIs management using capital intelligently for the stage this business is in?
Use it whenEvery full company Research Note, after the valuation work.
Open playbook →
The email version

Mostly Nothing, when there is actually something to say.

Usually about once a week. Research notes, portfolio decisions, reviews and thesis updates—the useful stuff that comes out of doing the work, whether or not I traded that week.