Research

The work before the money.

When a ticker is interesting enough to eat an evening, this is where the mess goes: reported facts, my assumptions, the scenario math, and the evidence that would make me change my mind.

The company record is what I think now. A dated Research Note is what I thought then. The standalone investment view and my portfolio action are separate decisions: a company can pass the research and still get $0 from me because my existing holdings, sizing or opportunity cost say no. A different portfolio can rationally reach a different action.

Dated Research Notes

What I thought at the time.

These stay frozen on purpose. Price, assumptions, model and action all stay attached, even if future me ends up thinking the old view was dumb.

MCO
Oct 11, 2026
MCO — A different engine, not a different set of rules
Moody's offers something my AI-heavy portfolio needs: different earnings drivers. But the ratings moat, recurring analytics and a 3.5% FCF yield still have to clear the price test.
My action at publicationNo allocation · 12% return hurdle not met Open current company record →
Dated research
ISRG
Oct 8, 2026
ISRG — The robot is remarkable. Is the stock?
Intuitive's surgical ecosystem is extraordinary. I reconstructed the economics, modeled every line to FY2031, and found that a 31% drawdown still leaves a demanding entry price.
My action at publicationNo allocation · return hurdle not met Open current company record →
Dated research
AVGO
Oct 2, 2026
AVGO — The stock stopped moving. The earnings did not.
Broadcom’s AI earnings engine is accelerating, but the five-year Base return at $355 is close to my hurdle. Portfolio overlap still blocks capital.
My action at publicationNo allocation · portfolio overlap Open current company record →
Dated research
NFLX
Sep 28, 2026
NFLX — Netflix Research Note
I came in wanting a reason to pass on Netflix. The operating numbers and five-year return math made that harder than expected.
My action at publicationNo allocation · standalone screen passed Open current company record →
Dated research
Company index

Find the ticker. See the current view.

This is the living layer. Search the ticker, see where I stand now, then open the dated work if you want to see how I got here—or how wrong the old version was.

24 companiesStatus reflects the latest review, not a permanent label.
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The email version

Mostly Nothing, when there is actually something to say.

Usually about once a week. Research notes, portfolio decisions, reviews and thesis updates—the useful stuff that comes out of doing the work, whether or not I traded that week.